noted at the top of the show, happy fourth birthday to "the rach rachel maddow show." this show launched four years ago. we have loved every minute of it. we couldn't do it without you. we'll see you again monday, and "weekends with alex witt" starts right now. any bounce. fir first. mitt romney pointing to any other numbers. tropical storm leslie swirling in the atlantic but some parts of the u.s. may be feeling her effects. a new report on airfare. why you may be paying more as the holiday season approaches. good morning. i'm chris jansing filling in for alex. a critical day unfolding on the campaign trail this saturday.

both president obama and mitt romney taking their messages to key battleground states after both sides made their case at their conventions. the president begins in st. petersburg, florida, this morning, before heading to kissimmee. governor romney will speech in virginia beach and then attend a nascar race in richmond. a day after the new molly jobs report showing the economy added fewer than expected 96,000 jobs, even though the jobless rate dropped to 8.1% to 8.3%. here's the president's take from the campaign trail. today we learned that after losing around 800,000 jobs a month when i took office, business once again added jobs for the 30th month in a row. a total of more than 4.6 million jobs. but that's not good enough. we know that's not good enough. we need to create more jobs faster. >> kristinen welker is with

the president. >> reporter: when he campaigns here in the st. petersburg area later on today, you can expect him to get back on message, back on his message about jobs growth and economic fairness. you can also expect him to criticize republicans for their tax policies on friday he told a group of supporters in iowa that republicans use a tax cut to solve every problem. as for mitt romney he's trying to capitalize on the jobs figure. on friday he called them the hangover after the party. of course, that's a reference to the democratic national convention. he also said they are proof that president obama has failed on the economy. romney said while he diplomat see president obama's acceptance speech, he did read it and called it, quote, disappointing. the romney campaign is rolling out 12 new ads in eight key

swing states. all states that president obama won back in 2008. as for today, president obama will head to kissimmee, florida, from here. mitt romney will campaign in virginia. he'll attend the nascar race this evening. vice president biden will be in ohio. and paul ryan will be campaigning out west where he will begin debate preparations in oregon on sunday. chris? >> thank you. back to more on mitt romney who seized on this latest jobs report, rallying voters last night in new hampshire. >> a number of you would come away with heavy hearts because we've had a lot of bad news. we've seen in the last 3 1/2 years a lot of bad news. americans are tired of being tired. these have been tough times. >> nbc's peter alexander is covering mitt romney on the campaign trail. peter, by most accounts, including many republicans, the dnc had a stellar convention, and then this jobs report came

out. what are we going to hear from mitt romney today? >> reporter: well, in the words of run republican adviser, they said that honeymoon for the president after the dnc lasted all of eight hours. they just hammered away on the economy, on the jobs number yesterday. i spoke to a senior adviser to romney late yesterday afternoon and said, are these the numbers you're going to be focusing on for the next several days? that adviser said to me, we'll be focusing on these numbers for the next 60 days. so, we're really getting yesterday and again today a preview of what we can look forward to for the course of the final two months, the last sprint, as it were, of this campaign. kristen made an important point i want to continue. . the campaign, obviously the romney folks have a money advantage in this race. they raised so much money they can only begin to use for the general election after mitt romney became the republican presidential nominee. spending close to $5 million in eight key battleground states. all those states are states that obama won four years ago. they're releasing a total of 15

new ads there, chris, in florida the ads were specifically tailored to talk about falling real estate values. in colorado where the military has a large presence. they're going to focus on the president's budget cuts and what they could do to military job. they're tailoring their message to specific states. today the state of virginia as we travel again with mitt romney today. his second stop will be at a nascar event. some people with a keen focus on this election will be familiar with the last time he attended a nascar event romney got in trouble, acknowledging he had friends who were, quote, nascar owners. wasn't exactly the average joe image he was looking for. he's going to focus on the average joe in that state. one thing that was really telling in a conversation with an adviser late yesterday, they said they believe over the course of about eight states, these key eight states, there may be a total of just 1 million voters, 1 million votes that are

really still up in the air and available to grab. >> that would be unbelievable. peter alexander, thank you so much for getting up early for us. other front page political headlines. republican vice presidential nominee paul ryan told the colorado springs radio station the federal government should not interfere with states that have legalized the drug for medicinal purposes. the congressman added he does not personally approve of medical marijuana laws but said that issue should be left to the states. today congressman ryan will participate in a google online with senators in nevada, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida. and vice president biden will hold rallies in zanesville and athens. to the weather. bermuda is under a tropical storm warning as leslie approaches the islands. center of the storm expected to pass east of bermuda tomorrow. leslie is producing 65-mile-an-hour winds with

higher gusts and is forecast to strengthen over the next 48 hours. leslie could regain hurricane status over the weekend. but the storm is already kicking up dangerous surf and rip currents stretching from canada to the caribbean. surfers in north carolina ignored early warnings and rode the large waves yesterday but life guards in wrightsville beach said they made 30 rescues yesterday and those conditions are expected to worsen along the coast. reynolds wolf is live in coney island. >> reporter: we're expecting things to change quickly. first and foremost, we're going to see the surf begin to pick up. when that happens, we're going to have the threat of the rip currents that you talked about. but the second wave will come later on in the afternoon into the evening as we have a weather system that will be approaching from the west that will bring a chance of severe storms throughout the region, including here in new york. possibly some tornadoes, large hail, with damaging winds and maybe even flash flooding.

right now the story we're talking about, first and foremost, the rip currents. our photo journalist with us. if we can pan off. the eastern seaboard but the direct effect will be the heavier waves. we expect not just through today and tomorrow, but possibly into monday as well where we could see waves topping five feet. the rip current threat, that's when you have water rushing on shore enhanced because of the storm itself. when it leaves the shoreline pulls away, tends to cut a channel through the sand bar. that's almost like a conveyor belt. the number one threat for swimmers. had they're swimming, they get caught in the rip current. it can pull them back out to sea. people have a tendency to panic. when they do, obviously, that's when the threat of drowning occurs. again, 80% of all rescues from life guards due to rip currents. we expect that threat to continue. not just for today and tomorrow

but also into monday. back to you. >> i think, reynolds, that new york city stops providing life guards in places like coney island after the labor day holiday. so no life guards. are they warning people to stay out of the water? >> reporter: absolutely. i'm not going to make our photo journalist go through contortion but there is a red flag on the beach, meaning no one is supposed to be in the water. not a single life guard. people are to supposed to use common sense. abraving the waves. not a smart thing to do in these conditions. dead hangover with the national debt now at $16 trillion, can washington cut the deficit and stimulate the economy? we'll have answers ahead. [ female announcer ] when skin meets goddess...

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new poll numbers out this morning and they suggest a convention bump for president obama. the new gallup poll shows the president's approval rating 52%. that's up three points. at the same time, the president has also opened a three-point lead ahead of mitt romney. there you see the numbers, 48%/45%. joining me white house correspondent for the hill, amy. good to see you. we should point out these numbers were taken after bill clinton spoke, after michelle obama spoke but before the president spoke. i guess the indication might be those two at least did their jobs? >> they did. president obama might have fallen flat. i've heard this from several democrats who said they weren't as strong as they anticipated. he wasn't who he was in 2008 with broad sweeping ideas. but michelle obama and bill

clinton did their jobs and did it well. i was in the room and there were ear-piercing screeches from the crowds. they loved it. i think those polls reflect that. >> the did have audience seemed to appreciate it as well. just for people who might not have stayed up to watch, and bill clinton went a little longer than he was supposed to. let me play a little clip from that speech. >> he has laid the foundation for a new modern successful economy, a shared prosperity. and if you will renew the president's contract, you will feel it. you will feel it. folks, whether the american people believe or not, i just want you to know i believe it, with all my heart, i believe it. >> is he right? if not the whole election, could that be the critical piece of

these next 59 days? >> yeah, i think he's right. what you saw is, he kind of stole the show there. he did what president obama couldn't do. he kind of explained policies to the american people. you know, president obama is considered this great othrator t president clinton is a great communicator and he broke down these points and gave people something to think about going into november. >> lets bring in dave widegold, an msnbc contributor. good morning. >> good morning. >> president obama's approval stands at 52% but we're looking at a nine-point swing there. are these numbers at all sustainable? >> no, this looks like a pretty typical convention bounce. what's notable and useful is there is not much of a bounce anyone saw in any poll from the republican convention. i mean, mitt romney did what he wanted to do. he spent a lot of time introducing himself personally. they think they smooth the edges

around paul ryan's plan. but there wasn't a great on rush of support for mitt romney where the president and democrats wanted with this convention to show people -- the policies they had been convinced weren't working. if they did that, something mitt romney is going to chip away from in the last couple of weeks. >> we were saying this is a situation where these polls come in a couple days after, so this poll does not reflect either president obama's speech at the convention or the new jobs number that came out yesterday morning. could we see a change there, and do you think his speech hurt him even though, i guess you would say, the reviews were mixed. is it likely he will take a hit because of it? >> the speeches and the relative quality thereof aren't always related to the size of the poll

bounce. bill clinton's speech at the conventi, i don't think people can point to lines that stuck out but that was the biggest convention bounce of all time, about 13 points. i don't think the jobs numbers thementsdz are going to provide a bounce. if you talk to democrats they say the numbers have been weak, consistently weak, is baked into the election now. unless things had started to really recover and rebound two or three months ago, voters weren't going to feel like the economy was recovering markedly. so, we're going to hear a lot about jobs number, but they're not going to immediately impact voters. if you're unemployed, you know you're unemployed. that's the cynical way the party and power looks at this. the other thing we haven't talked about is ads. boy, they have gone up and they are running big time. let me play for you a new rnc ad. >> if you were willing to work with me.

>> if you're willing to work harder in this election. >> then i promise you. >> then i promise you -- >> i promise you change will come. >> there's the tag line, are you better off, amie? are we going to hear that literally for the next 59 days? >> yes, i think that's all you're going to hear. that's a huge talking point for republicans. but i think the president tried to, in his speech on thursday night, tried to hammer home what this election was about, the choice. you heard that 15 times from him. this is about a choice, a choice. he also sought to hammer home why mitt romney couldn't exactly handle the job. you saw him sort of take jobs from him on foreign policy. so, i think going into this, you're going to hear both sides of this situation. >> and here's what we have now. so, we went through the conventions, dave, now we've got essentially almost a month, 3, 3 1/2 weeks before we hit the debates and them, boom, boom, four debates, three presidential, one vice presidential.

is there any conventional wisdom out there about who's the better debater? >> that's a good question because barack obama hasn't been in a debate since 2008. mitt romney has been in about 27. >> a lot of practice. >> yeah. and his campaign, frankly, resents how many times he had to go on stage and debate republicans. no, i think the wrap on romney is that when it comes to detail, he sometimes falls short. he's very good at the broad sweeps of why people should be angry at incumbent. reag reaga ted kennedy, i think why you see that from the rnc, not good at set speeches, all they feel they need to make is the argument that unemployment is high. the president is quite good for all the jabs about his teleprompter, good at recalling how many people have health care because it is his policy, how many people are back to work since the bottom of the recession.

the president, who's still quite good at this, can find examples to put romney off his footing. romney is good with zingers. he's quite witty in debate forum even if things like the $10,000 bet don't hit. it's just a question of whether obama can outpace him on facts, as has been done effectively in debates in the past. >> one thing for sure in debates is the fact-checkers will be very, very busy. great to see on you this saturday morning. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> we invite you to watch "meet the press" tomorrow because david gregory will have an exclusive interview with mitt romney. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." the cities where airfares are on the rise. what's fueling the spike next. first, how about getting $100,000 profit out of a $7 investment. that's about to happen to a virginia woman. she bought this painting at a flea market a year and a half ago. was going to throw the painting

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retail crime funds global terror." good to see you. you got the orange memo. >> yes, september orange. >> let's start with the jobs report. 96,000 jobs, fewer than expected, even though the jobless rate went down to 8.1%, but is there a silver lining? >> a little bit of a silver lining. yes, jobs went down to 8.1%. it was at 8.3% for july. analysts were expecting jobs to be added -- to be about 125,000. that's where the sticking point was. manufacturing jobs lost 15,000 and temporary unemployment jobs dropped to about 4,900. but the silver lining is that the federal reserve might use stimulus as bond buying economic stimulus and they'll announce that next week. >> interest rates can't get any lower. we're already looking at zero percent. >> they're saying this might restimulate the economy and, you know, put some home into the american people there. >> this is the one you and i liked, and we were both like,

what? agricultural department study about the most expensive states to raise your kids. i thought number one was a shocker. >> oh, you thought it was a shocker? >> well, number one was new york, right, of all things. but new york, it costs -- to raise an infant, $14,009. you can imagine -- >> but i guess i understand new york city but i thought statewide, wow. >> what i thought interesting, too, was minnesota child care is really expensive. it almost costs as much to raise an infant as it costs for a semester of tuition in minnesota. >> oh, my gosh. >> the reason is because it's a cherish child community which means parents expect more. they expect child care givers to have degrees, to be more learned. >> airfares taking off. >> right. airfares are around $346 per. that's the average flight, up about 20% since 2011. the reason why is because of

those rising fuel costs. now, fuel right now is around $3 a gallon. that's what airlines are paying for that. that's up since last year. that's what they're saying is boosting the price of those tickets. >> great to see you. thank you so much. >> great to see you. in this morning's "one minute playback" a new take on bill clinton's take his speech. >> we cannot afford to take the reins to someone who would double down and trickle down? i'm a vegan but i would gobble that down in two seconds. i here it's freaking great. in conclusion, when you go to the polls this election day, remember to vote for me. i mean, barack obama.

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only at the home depot, and only $31.98 a gallon. politics now. two clear but different views on the latest jobs report emerging. one from the white house, one from the romney campaign. of course, we've been talking about this. 96,000 jobs created. lower than expected. but the jobless rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%. here's are the interpretations on those numbers from mitt romney and president obama. >> itsd simply unimaginable. the president said at this time we would be at 5.4%. instead we're at about 8%. you know the difference that makes in how many people would be working in america? 9 million people. had he been able to keep his promise, had his -- had his policies worked as he thought they would, there would be 9 million more americans working. >> and, by the way, if the republicans are serious about being concerned about

joblessness, we could create a million new jobs right now. if congress would pass the jobs plan i sent to them a year ago. jobs for teachers, jobs for construction workers, jobs for folks who have been looking for work for a long time. >> joining me now, john harwood, cnbc chief white house correspondent and political writer for "the new york times." great to talk to you. >> good to see you. >> seems like there's something for both sides in this. you have fewer than expected lines, which gives attack lines for mitt romney but the headlines i saw is that the jobless rate drops which is good for the obama administration. is it clear if this is going to move the needle? >> i don't think so. i wouldn't expect it to move the needle. as you suggested, chris, it does crystallize the messages of both sides. mitt romney is running on the weakness of the economy under president obama, telling voters now's the time for you to fire him.

president obama made the case on thursday night in his acceptance speech, i know it's hard, but we have a long road to climb out of, not just the recession and financial crisis but the longer term with stagnating middle incomes. president clinton helped him with that on wednesday night saying no president could have dug out in four years. we'll see where the voters are. so far it's been a dead even. slight advantage president obama and maybe a little boost from the conventions, but the debates are likely to be decisive and we're not going to know for a while how that will come out. >> i'm wondering if we -- once we see the final numbers because we were talking earlier in the program how there was this small bump but that does not include either the president's speech or these jobless numbers, if that's going to move much. >> you know, there are two elements to what you want to accomplish at a convention now. and remember these come in effect later in the process. whether or not it's later on the calendar but so many ads have been run. voters are so polarized.

90% of the people have chosen up sides. what you want to do, democrats and republicans alike, is pump up your people and also try to reach that small slice of voters, maybe 10%, who are undecided, see if you can move it a bit. neither side really expected a large bounce. democrats may get one, mitt romney got a point or to. that's already faded. and we'll see what the half life is of this bump that gallup reported for president obama yesterday. it's not likely to be a lot. it's not likely to be long lasting. >> 59 days until the election. we were talking to peter alexander earlier and some folks on the romney campaign said to him yesterday, a high-level member of the campaign, they actually think, is it 7%, 8%, 10% of the people who consider themselves to be undecided? they think that number of voters may be as small as 1 million. what are you hearing, john? >> don't know if it's 1 million or 3 million or 7 million, but it's a small number. and it's a small number of states that's actually shrinking

for the romney campaign. if you look at the buy they made they announced yesterday, eight states did not include the state of wisconsin, where paul ryan is from, did not include pennsylvania, michigan. those are targets that seem to be difficult for them. so they really have to run the table on a small number of states, they can do it, they're close in those places but it won't be easy. >> we've said this from the very beginning that this is going to be an election that barring some major catastrophe or some huge gaffe on the part of one of the candidates, and neither of them seem prone to huge gaffes, this will be an election that turn on the economy. a lot of people get confused because they see a number where there's jobs added that are fewer than expected and the job rate drops so significantly. is that because there just are more people who have given up searching for jobs? >> exactly. the unemployment is calculated

on the basis of how many people say they're looking for jobs. if fewer people decide to look, because they're discouraged, the rate could go down because you have weak job creation. takes 150,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. anything less than that indicates a weaker job picture. this was not a good report for the administration, but we know that we're in a weak recovery. we know that we're in a weak labor market. and i think that has been so baked into the expectations, it is not likely to make a big difference. >> when you put these two things together, the economy and undecided voters and i think most analysts will tell you that they're really hyperfocused on suburban women still. we used to call the soccer moms in suburban ohio and suburban michigan, those kinds of places. one more thing we haven't talked about in the economy is the stock market has come back. it's at the highest level since 2008. if you have a job, raising your family, looking at your 401(k),

that might make you feel a little more comfortable. not as important maybe as the jobs numbers but is the stock market important and 401(k)s important? >> for some. especially college educated, upscale, undecided voters. but i really think most of the people who are on the fence in this race are people who are not very engaged in politics. they tend to be more down scale. they tend to be more women than men. they'll decide very late. one of the ironies you pointed out, chris, is that for all the talk that investors and business consider this president antibusiness and hostile, and many have turned away, given their money and support to mitt romney, the stock market has done quite well under president obama. not sure if that will result in a lot of votes for him but with the more affluent suburbanites, those who might vote on social rather than economic issues, this might make it easier for the obama campaign. >> always great to see you, my

friend. >> you bet. >> john was talking about the ads. we heard from both campaigns they're going to suspend all ads on september 11th. the president paused from the campaign trail to deliver his weekly radio address, marking 11 years since the september 11th attacks, talking about that and about u.s. security now. >> instead of pulling back from the world, we've strengthened our alliances, while improving our security here at home. as americans we refuse to live in fear. today a new tower rises above the new york skyline and our country is stronger, safer and more respected in the world. >> by the way, on tuesday morning here on msnbc on that anniversary, we will be replaying the coverage from the original 9/11. and marking the attacks is also the topic of today's office politics. alex talks to msnbc terrorist analyst evan kohlman.

>> we community directly with these groups, communicate directly with the people that runs them. one interesting part about the internet is it has brought us closer together. things that used to be kind of odd all of a sudden are much more realistic these days. you can actually on the internet, you can reach out and e-mail most wanted terrorists. you can call them on the telephone. if you can believe it, we speak to these folks. sometimes we speak to them, they knowing who we are, we knowing who they are. they simply don't care. >> because they can't be traced? >> they feel they're beyond the law. they also feel they are so proud of their mission and they're so defiant that they will continue to do this regardless of what the west thinks of them, regardless of what the u.s. government thinks of them. they're proud of this. >> what if they get caught? a lot are martyrs. >> we were tracking a group on the afghan/pakistani border who

were chatting on internet websites. turns out one was the guy who blew up the cia compound in december of 2009 who killed seven cia agents and his other associates, part of the same group, online, they're all dead now. they've either been killed in drone strikes, killed in bombing attacks. one died building a bomb. it blew up in his face. he was talking about this online. we track these conversations, look at these folks. it's amazing who you can talk to, who you see and the information you can get just by speaking with people. that's one of the unusual parts about when we do interact with these folks. we tend to get along very well with these guys especially on a face-to-face basis. jokes are exchanged. >> really? >> not always. sometimes it's hostile. but it doesn't have to be. i think, you know, these folks, their ideology is poisonous. we certainly don't agree with any part of it, right?

but our job here is not to make subjective -- those kind of subjective judges. i think the american public is well capable of making those judgments on their own. i think what the american public and the american government is lacking is the information to make those judgments. >> in the noon hour, evan talks about the extent to which terrorists are operating on u.s. soil to avenge the death of barack obama. osama bin laden . right now bermuda is under a tropical storm warning and leslie is expected to move east of bermuda but people will feel wind and waves. jim cantore live on skype from elbow beach. how are things there? what are you expecting? >> reporter: a much more cloudy today. the good news is the ocean isn't as bad. they're prepared nonetheless. that's the beautiful thing of bermuda. they get ready for it. it's a way of life out here.

you can see behind me the wave action, crashing into the rock cliffs off in the distance there. that, of course, film is the air, the sea spray, salt spray so there's a lot of wave action out there. crashing waves and the wind is bringing in that. they've been ready at elbow beach for a couple days. this is a restaurant right on the beach so they have to take special preparations with this one. these are metal doors that go up in front of this restaurant. they have taken down all the tables and obviously the awning in through here. as we look out, you can see those beautiful turquoise waters and clouds approaching. we're looking off to the south and east. this is the rain that will move in this afternoon. wind is sitting around 10 to 20 miles an hour. not that bad at all. yesterday i think the waves were a little worse as we look over the balcony. you can see the difference in where the lighter sand was versus the erosion. so, we did have a little beach erosion. that's typically something you'll get with wave action anyway. we certainly expect more of that as we go through the next couple of days. this was done during igor.

i was here when this was going on. we had massive erosion in through here. the bottom line is bermuda is ready. right now business as usual. airports are open, buses are running and stores are open for folks that want the last-minute items. we'll probably see the worst weather tomorrow at this time as the storm comes within 150 miles of this 21-mile long beautiful island. back to you. >> jim cantore. take care. just ahead, the battle for ohio and the tug of war over early voting there. a look at what's at stake. bob...

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discover vibrant maturity and more at purinaone.com. just hours ago a new twist in the battle for early voting in ohio. the state's republican secretary of state, jon husted prohibited. it defied an earlier court decision on early voting. i want to bring in ohio state

house reporter for "columbus dispatch." good morning. >> good morning. >> you reported this news late yesterday, so is this the end or is it just another twist? >> this is definitely not the end yet. regardless of whatever directives are issued or rescinded at this point by secretary husted what matters now is what the sixth circuit court of appeals does with this issue. this stemmed from a lawsuit that the obama campaign and ohio democrats filed trying to get those last three days of voting restored. a federal district judge ordered they should be restored because not doing so was an equal protection clause violation. but the state has now appealed that to the sixth circuit court of appeals and that's where it stands now. really, that is going to be the important decision. >> as most people know the reason democrats and the obama campaign have fought these laws because they say it keeps people generally poor, generally african-americans, from voting in disproportionately high numbers. how significant could a ruling like this be in the state of ohio? >> well, the democrats believe

it could be very significant. their estimates are 93,000 ohioans voted on those last three days in 2008. the obama campaign was very active in getting people out to the polls early. much more so than the republicans were. they saw it as a key way to -- in ohio the campaigns like to call it banking votes. you get these folks to the polls early, get them -- get their votes in the bank and then you don't have to worry about them anymore. so, they obviously feel it's a vital thing. the republicans have fought it. and a lot of it is -- they say a lot deals with county elections officials who say they need those extra three days to get their poll books in order and it's too much of a logistical problem to vote all the way up to monday of the election. >> we heard some of this. we heard talk about this during the democratic convention. they're trying to use it to rally those voters. we know that in disproportionately high numbers african-americans support barack obama. the question is, will they turn

out and the question is, will they be energized in their own communities? is there any indication you're seeing that this fight has energized one side or another in ohio? >> well, the democrats certainly are trying to make it a position to energize voters. it's not just this. there's another issue dealing with provisional balloting there's a lawsuit over that democrats currently got a favorable ruling on that here in ohio. they're trying to make it a general theme that the republicans are trying to limit voting opportunities. and they want to use that as a rallying cry. republicans, of course, argue that is absolutely not the case. they'll point to numbers. it's accurate to point to them, that the numbers between 2004 and 2008 in ohio in terms of total voter turnout were not very much different. so, the early voting in 2008 really did not affect total turnout very much. >> jim siegel from the "columbus

dit dispatch." thank you fo late breaking information. up next, it could be the most important session of congress in our lifetime. will the u.s. economy fall over the fiscal cliff? my name is adam frucci and i'm the editor of splitsider.com. i love new technology, so when i heard that american express and twitter were teaming up, i was pretty interested. turns out you just sync your american express card securely to your twitter account, tweet specific hashtags, and you'll get offers on things you love. this totally changes the way i think about membership. saving money on the things you want. to me, that's the membership effect. nice boots!

congress returns from recess monday and it could be one of the most consequential sessions we've seen in a long time because the big question is can the legislature reach a deal to avoid the so-called falling off the fiscal cliff. president obama addressed the budget and deficit in his dnc speech on thursday. >> you can choose a future where we reduce our deficit without sticking it to the middle class. independent experts say that my plan would cut our deficit by $4 trillion. >> joining me is -- good to see

you, good morning. >> good morning. >> have you done the analysis? would it cut $4 trillion and how much of a cut would that make? >> we have done the analysis and the truth is while the president obama explained it doesn't reach the $4 trillion mark. so the bottom line with what the president has done, it's a plan that's the right kind of framework. more savings would have to be found and that means we need while we're going through this campaign to hear from both the president and governor romney a full detailed plan of how they could actually fix the budget so the deficit and debt are under control and how they would work with continue on both sides of the deal. >> what would be the least congress can do to avoid falling off the fiscal cliff. >> at the end of the year we face a very serious moment.

the tax cuts are going to expire. the super committee is going to hit with across the board-cuts. i say this as someone very worried about the deficit but it would do too much too quickly in frafrmgly stupid deficits. abrupt and across the board tax rate hikes which ben bernankend the congressional office, numerous outside experts have said would put us right into recession. so we cannot go off that cliff. on the other side -- >> i did want to say to your point that if the u.s. goes out. the naks will enter a recession, gdp will fall, unemployment is fall. is this the sky is falling, the school is falling or is this a real deal? >> oh, this is an incredibly serious moment. it is so serious.

were we to go off the policy cliff, they're going to sate's us letting it happen. none of us should let it happen. to kwens conses would be so severe it pushing us the put a debt deal in place. we have to fix the debt. we have to look at all the parts of the budget in order to put together that 4 or 5 or $6 trillion drrs deal and perhaps the fact that if we don't do that, we ooh going to harm ourselves so tre men duhly that's going to push members of congress, both sighs, the president and leadership to put out a plan. it's going to be filled with the hard thing we have tuque about. this is going to be a few moment of reckoning. wit really have to -- >> maya, we have to let that

with the last word. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> allege will be back here later on at noon easter. but straight ahead more smart political talk with "up with chris hayes. " i brought your stuff. you don't have to do this. yes i do. i want you to keep this. it'd be weird. take care. you too. [ sighs ] so how did it go? he's upset. [ male announcer ] spend less time at gas stations. with best in class fuel economy. it's our most innovative altima ever. ♪ [ slap! ] [ slap! slap! slap! slap! ] ow! [ male announcer ] when your favorite foods fight you, fight back fast with tums smoothies. so fast and smooth, you'll forget you had heartburn. ♪ tum tum tum tum tums [ male announcer ] tums smoothies.

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